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Where is Gustav going?

with 3 comments

Update (August 30): This post is getting a lot of hits via Google, so I wanted to drop in a more updated map.  Gustav has grown into a large storm, and will impact areas beyond what is indicated by the National Hurricane Center track line.  Speaking of which, go to the NHC for the latest updates.  The graphic below is the probabilities of a location undergoing tropical storm force winds or greater in the next 5 days.  Gustav’s impacts are clear, and on the right side you can see the emergence of Hanna.  This is one of the best graphics to use to determine the impact that the storm will have on you (aside from storm surge).

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen

In short, maybe New Orleans or maybe south Texas.  The National Hurricane Center lays it out like this:

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen

There is a high pressure system that will possibly interact with Gustav.  Some models predict little interaction and steer it towards New Orleans.  Still others predict a strong interaction and push Gustav into the western Gulf.  Here are the latest model runs:

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen

There is a lot of uncertainty with this storm.  What everyone does agree on is that it should intensify into a major hurricane once it hits the open waters of the Gulf.

Oh, and as for Tropical Storm Hanna, the models are currently just a jumbled mess:

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen


Written by Scott

August 29, 2008 at 11:13 am

Posted in Weather

Tagged with , , ,

3 Responses

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  1. that second model looks like multicolored spaghetti..

    clearly a sign of His Noodly Appendage


    August 29, 2008 at 12:26 pm

  2. Yay. Click to embiggen is cromulent again. Now if we could only get one forming in, say, Tennessee, we’d be completely surrounded.


    August 29, 2008 at 12:52 pm

  3. I try to keep things as cromulent as possible.


    August 29, 2008 at 1:01 pm

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