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Which way is Fay going?

with 3 comments

Update: As of Monday afternoon, the NHC has Fay making landfall in southwest Florida.

As of Sunday evening, Tropical Storm (and soon to be hurricane) Fay is just south of Cuba. The National Hurricane Center forecast currently has Fay making landfall as a hurricane in the Big Bend region of Florida.

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen

The path it follows could make a huge difference. If it hugs the right edge of the cone, then Fay gets very little time over water to recover from its time over Cuba and would be more of a rain event for south Florida. If it tracks along the western edge of the cone, then it would spend a lot of time over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. That could make for a nasty storm. Also bear in mind that the strongest winds are usually found in the northeastern quadrant of a hurricane, so traveling parallel to the Florida coast could deliver quite a beating.

The NHC generates their forecast path based on the output of several computer models. Here are the latest model runs for Fay:

Click to embiggen

Click to embiggen

The best thing to do, as always, is to keep watching and make sure you are prepared.

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Written by Scott

August 17, 2008 at 6:39 pm

Posted in Weather

Tagged with ,

3 Responses

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  1. I see the folks at Port St. Joe have the force field fully operational. ‘This is not the beach you’re looking for.’ At least in the models.

    Brett L

    August 17, 2008 at 8:34 pm

  2. Maybe Moses retired to that spot.

    Scott

    August 17, 2008 at 8:48 pm

  3. i’m prepared.

    by not being in florida.

    tuna

    August 18, 2008 at 9:30 am


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