Hurricane Dean – Model Plots
Update: The 11:00 NHC discussion concludes with this nugget of wisdom: It should be noted that guidance for day 4 and 5 is more uncertain today than yesterday.
This morning, the computer model plots for Hurricane Dean are somewhat close to each other but define two different scenarios:
- Bad for the Yucatan: The National Hurricane Center’s official track has Dean hitting the Yucatan as a category 4 hurricane, and most of the models agree with this. This will have a pretty devastating impact on the peninsula. The time over land will weaken Dean, so its impact when it hits the western side of the gulf may be limited.
- Bad for Texas: A minority of the models have Dean staying in the open water between the Yucatan and Cuba and eventually making landfall in Texas. A category 4 storm entering the warm waters of the Gulf certainly has the potential to fully develop into a category 5 storm and make a catastrophic landfall.
The bottom line is that, like with all major storms, keep watching it closely. Forecast track predictions lose their reliability when looking more than 3 days out, so there’s a lot yet to be determined with this storm. Bear in mind also that I am a far cry from being a meteorologist, I’m just some dude who likes weather.