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Hurricane Dean – Model Plots

with 2 comments

Update: The 11:00 NHC discussion concludes with this nugget of wisdom: It should be noted that guidance for day 4 and 5 is more uncertain today than yesterday.

This morning, the computer model plots for Hurricane Dean are somewhat close to each other but define two different scenarios:

  1. Bad for the Yucatan: The National Hurricane Center’s official track has Dean hitting the Yucatan as a category 4 hurricane, and most of the models agree with this. This will have a pretty devastating impact on the peninsula. The time over land will weaken Dean, so its impact when it hits the western side of the gulf may be limited.
  2. Bad for Texas: A minority of the models have Dean staying in the open water between the Yucatan and Cuba and eventually making landfall in Texas. A category 4 storm entering the warm waters of the Gulf certainly has the potential to fully develop into a category 5 storm and make a catastrophic landfall.

The bottom line is that, like with all major storms, keep watching it closely. Forecast track predictions lose their reliability when looking more than 3 days out, so there’s a lot yet to be determined with this storm. Bear in mind also that I am a far cry from being a meteorologist, I’m just some dude who likes weather.

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Written by Scott

August 17, 2007 at 8:13 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Tagged with ,

2 Responses

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  1. “I’m just some dude who likes weather.”

    and shoulders

    John

    August 17, 2007 at 1:39 pm

  2. Yeah, yeah. Go buy some gas for your car before this thing causes prices to spike.

    Scott

    August 17, 2007 at 1:41 pm


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